540 亿美元！全球种子市场最新动态：市值飙升、转基因种子、中国和未来

      The global seed industry is at a pivotal moment, with a market value soaring to approximately $54 billion in 2023 — an impressive 3.5-fold increase since 1996. This growth is largely driven by the rise of genetically modified (GM) seeds, which now represent almost 50% of the market despite covering only 18% of the global planting area.

      全球种子行业正处于关键时刻，2023 年市值飙升至约 540 亿美元，自 1996 年以来增长了 3.5 倍，令人印象深刻。这种增长主要是由转基因 （GM） 种子的兴起推动的，尽管转基因种子仅占全球种植面积的 18%，但现在占市值的近 50%。

      Seeds are a highly R&D-intensive sector, with leading global companies investing an average of 14% of their sales in research and development — significantly higher than other areas of the agri-food chain and comparable to the pharmaceutical industry. Over the past three decades, a total of 137 GM traits have been introduced across 12 crops, with corn leading the way, accounting for 52% of these innovations. This trend highlights the critical role of innovation in driving market dynamics.

      种子是一个高度研发密集型的行业，全球领先的公司平均将其销售额的 14% 投入到研发中 — 明显高于农业食品链的其他领域，与制药行业相当。在过去的三十年里，共有 137 种转基因性状被引入 12 种作物，其中玉米处于领先地位，占这些创新的 52%。这一趋势凸显了创新在推动市场动态方面的关键作用。

      Rising seed prices have primarily fueled market growth, reflecting the value added to farmers through innovative traits that enhance income. An analysis of US GM seed prices from 1996 to 2022 reveals a consistent upward trend, though a notable decline between 2014 and 2018.

      不断上涨的种子价格主要推动了市场增长，反映了通过提高收入的创新性状为农民带来的附加值。对 1996 年至 2022 年美国转基因种子价格的分析显示，尽管在 2014 年至 2018 年期间显着下降，但呈持续上升趋势。

      This slump was primarily due to a lack of new trait introductions in cotton. Following the introduction of the Bollgard III trait in 2011, no new trait was added to cotton until 2020, when the XtendFlex trait was introduced. Since 2021, seed prices have risen again, mainly driven by new trait introductions, increased commodity prices, and higher farmer’s income.

      这种下滑主要是由于棉花缺乏新的性状引入。继 2011 年引入 Bollgard III 性状后，棉花才新增性状，直到 2020 年引入 XtendFlex 性状。自 2021 年以来，种子价格再次上涨，主要是由于新性状的引入、商品价格上涨和农民收入增加。

      Looking ahead, the introduction of new GM crops and the adoption of GM technology in emerging markets will be crucial for sustaining growth.

      展望未来，新兴市场引入新的转基因作物和采用转基因技术对于维持增长至关重要。

      The Asia-Pacific region is particularly noteworthy, with significant developments in China, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Australia. China is shifting its stance on GM technology, with traits for corn and soybeans expected to be introduced soon. In 2021, China launched a pilot project for GM corn and soybeans, which has expanded significantly. By 2024, China’s GM pilot area is estimated to have increased 150% over the previous year, reaching 1.6 million acres, though this still represents only about 1.5% of China’s total corn planted area. A strategic focus on food security and self-reliance drives the recent policy developments in China regarding GM and New Breeding Techniques (NBTs).

      亚太地区尤其值得注意，中国、印度、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、孟加拉国和澳大利亚都取得了重大进展。中国正在改变对转基因技术的立场，预计玉米和大豆的性状将很快推出。2021 年，中国启动了转基因玉米和大豆试点项目，该项目已大幅扩大。到 2024 年，中国的转基因试点面积估计比上一年增加了 150%，达到 160 万英亩，尽管这仍然仅占中国玉米总种植面积的 1.5% 左右。对粮食安全和自力更生的战略关注推动了中国最近关于转基因和新育种技术 （NBT） 的政策发展。

      The commercialization of GM seeds could significantly enhance their value and lead to a transformative shift in the Chinese seed industry, similar to the changes seen in the US during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Additionally, NBTs offer the potential to introduce many new traits to food crops previously untouched by GM technology. Chinese companies are heavily involved in NBT research, accounting for about one-quarter of the 700+ traits in the industry pipeline, based on S&P Global’s Seed Innovation database.

      转基因种子的商业化可以显著提高其价值，并导致中国种子行业的变革性转变，类似于美国在 1990 年代末和 2000 年代初看到的变化。此外，NBT 有可能为以前未受转基因技术触及的粮食作物引入许多新性状。根据 S&P Global 的种子创新数据库，中国公司大量参与 NBT 研究，约占行业管道中 700+ 性状的四分之一。

      In the next 10-20 years, we expect the Chinese seed industry to be unrecognizable from its current state, with significant implications for the global seed market as competitive Chinese companies expand internationally. No clear pathway for international seed players for Foreign Direct Investment in China for GM traits and key crops would create a challenge to benefit from GM commercialization in the country.

      在未来 10 到 20 年，我们预计中国种子行业将与目前的状况面目全非，随着有竞争力的中国公司进行国际扩张，这将对全球种子市场产生重大影响。对于在中国进行外国直接投资的转基因性状和关键作物的国际种子参与者来说，没有明确的途径，这将对从中国的转基因商业化中受益构成挑战。

      In summary, while challenges such as regulatory hurdles and market acceptance persist, the future of the seed industry looks promising. Innovation through GM technology and NBTs will drive growth in established markets like North America and South America, as well as in emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, despite ongoing uncertainties in Europe. Harmonization of regulations at the global level is crucial for NBTs to effectively contribute to seed market growth, as disparities can hinder technology adoption. S&P Global’s analysis of countries with NBT regulatory frameworks reveals that 68% of the countries regulate these techniques as conventionally bred, adhering to a definition that excludes transgenes. However, inconsistencies in terminology among these countries — such as cisgenesis, SDN1, and SDN2 — remain a challenge that needs to be addressed. Continued investment in research and development and strategic market expansions will be key to unlocking new opportunities and ensuring global food security in an ever-changing landscape.

      总之，虽然监管障碍和市场接受度等挑战仍然存在，但种子行业的未来看起来很有希望。尽管欧洲的不确定性持续存在，但通过 GM 技术和 NBT 进行的创新将推动北美和南美等成熟市场以及亚太地区新兴市场的增长。全球层面的法规协调对于 NBT 有效促进种子市场增长至关重要，因为差异会阻碍技术的采用。S&P Global 对拥有 NBT 监管框架的国家/地区的分析显示，68% 的国家将这些技术作为传统培育进行监管，并遵循排除转基因的定义。然而，这些国家/地区之间的术语不一致（例如 cisgenesis、SDN1 和 SDN2）仍然是一个需要解决的挑战。在不断变化的环境中，对研发和战略市场扩张的持续投资将是释放新机遇和确保全球粮食安全的关键。

      This Global Seed Market Update is a summary of a presentation on the same at the Seed Congress of the Americas 2024, held in Buenos Aires Sept. 30 to Oct. 2.

      本《全球种子市场最新动态》是 9 月 30 日至 10 月 2 日在布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的 2024 年美洲种子大会上 就此进行的演讲摘要。